Study indicates the pandemic school closures will impact GCSE grades until 2030

Research from the Nuffield Foundation, conducted by academics from Exeter, Strathclyde and the London School of Economics suggests that the GCSE results of students in England will gradually decline until 2030. It is believed that this will contribute to a lifetime of lower earnings, with the research suggesting that this is the result of the way school closures were handled during the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2023, 45% of GCSE students received a “good pass” in English and maths – equivalent to a grade 5. It is predicted however that those who were 5 years old when schools closed during the pandemic will drop below 40% when they sit their GCSEs in 2030. Lee Elliot Major, a professor of social mobility at Exeter University who co-authored the report, suggests that there are several “low-cost” policies that can help to mitigate the impact, such as shortening the school summer holiday in England, and re-distributing these holiday days throughout the academic year. Read more here.